Nigeria Government VS the People (our Advantage)

Recently, friends and followers raised concern over the ongoing occupynigeria protest presently going on across the country. With cities shut down totally by citizenry, many are still pessimistic about the outcome of true independent of Nigeria for Nigerians.

 'It’s a waste of time'

'Labour will compromise'

'You will just end up dead while someone else enjoy your sweat'

Indeed, previous records of negotiation between the FG and NLC show that never has any change in price returned to status-quo; ground has always been shift.

However, the timing couldn’t have been better. The removal of subsidy on petrol by FG coincides with the face-off between Iran and US/EU that had threatened to increase the international fuel price.

Iran, for a while had been accused of enriching Uranium with the hope of manufacturing A-Bomb which Iran had repeatedly denied.

According to it President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, "Tehran’s nuclear program was intended only for generating electricity"

In February 2006, however, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) charged that it had evidence of an Iranian military program to produce high explosives, like those used in detonating a nuclear weapon. This earned Iran a tough sanction from the UN.

Recently, further sanctions were being prepare on Iran for it refusal to stop the enrichment of Uranium which the US predicted is now about 20% pure.

In response, Iran threatened that any further sanction, the country will close the Strait of Oman.

If this happened, it will mean 40% of the world total oil export will be trap in the Persian Gulf. This will leave China, US among others in extreme shortage of crude oil.

The strait of Oman is a small inlet of about 52 miles in width that open seaway into the Persian Gulf. The Persian Gulf is the sea port used by Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Oman to export crude oil to the world.

About 40% of the world total oil will be trapped if the Strait of Oman is closed by Iran.

This treat caused the International crude oil price to skyrocket.

While these were going on, the FGN removed subsidy, a move that spark wide protest across the country with a standoff between the people and their representative.

When PENGASSAN announced that it Union will join the strike, there were international concern.

The reason for this concern is not far fetch.

Crude oil price could go up as high as 60%. This will hurt China's industry by more than half and U.S. by about 30%. Fuel shortage is a gap which neither China nor American will accept to happen in the face of Russia's ever increasing treat, Europe economic burden and the alienation of the West by Latin American oil producing country.

If anyone is still having a second doubt about the Iranian saga, on the 11th of January, 2012, a top Iranian scientist was killed by magnetic bomb in the country's capital. Iran was quick to point accusing finger on Israel and US.

While US denied any involvement and condemned the act, as at the time of filing this report, Israel is yet to say anything about it.

While many hypothesis about the future of this country heat the feet of the government from within, the ripple effect of another major oil producing country shutting off it production maybe more than

the coalition of international countries may handle.

Odds against OccupyNigeria

The resilient of many had, by the end of the first week, wan thin. Drained of fund, many protesters are ready to resume their businesses irrespective of what price the pump price is. I went round the city of Lagos, spoke with many friend via social media, collated responses from post and tweets; there was overwhelming negative attitude to the continuation of the protest. Many see the resolution of the NLC/ FGN as the stop for the struggle.

Lack of information, especially to the interior town and cities of Nigeria is hampering the real reason for the struggle. Many of these cities rely on NTA for news, the same NTA that is blacking out news and footages about the protests, the size of the protesters and their demands. Conventional methods may not go far and many cities may soon see themselves isolated in the struggle for a better Nigeria.

It thus left to see how long the citizens’ resilient will last or the government’s tactics will end up.