By OMOH GABRIEL
Nigeria
is again on the path towards a debt trap set as usual by its quest and
taste for nice things. The country is accumulating debt without any
visible alternative of paying back the loans apart from oil.
In
other parts of the world, countries borrow to improve their capital
infrastructure that aid further production. This helps in no small way
to pay off such debt. In those other countries, citizens and corporate
bodies pay their taxes regularly to aid development. Nigeria’s tax to
GDP ratio is one of the lowest in the world.
With oil prices swinging and with more oil being found around the world, Nigeria has been growing its debt profile.
Nigeria’s
total debt stock has risen to a very high level of N10.4 trillion as at
June 2014. The rising debt profile of the country is made up of
external debt stock of N1.46 trillion ($9.377billion) and Federal
Government domestic debt of N7.421 trillion ($47.653billion). States in
the federation have a domestic debt stock of N1.551trillion or $9.963
billion.
The Federal Government share of the rising external debt
stock stands at $6.363billion. As at December 2013, however, the total
stock of external debt was $8.821 billion, indicating a rise of $556
million in the first half of 2014. But as at 31st December 2012, Federal
Government’s external debt was $4.14 billion as against a total debt
stock of both federal and state governments of $6.5 billion.
A
break down of the rising debt profile showed that Federal Government’s
external and domestic debts amounted to N8.8 trillion or $57.030 billion
as at the end of June 2014. Federal Government borrowing from
multilateral institutions amounted to $3.826 billion while loans from
bilateral sources mainly China Exim Bank and Eurobond amounted to $2.537
billion.
In the case of states, a total of $2.904 billion was
sourced from multilateral institutions, $108.9 million was obtained as
loans from bilateral sources, thus making states’ total outstanding
external debt as at June 2013, $3.013 billion.
The growing debt
should be of concern to all Nigerians considering the nation’s recent
experience with the Paris Club of creditors.
Nigerians will
remember that in 1985, Nigeria owed $8 billion to the Paris Club of
creditors out of $19 billion of its foreign debt. By the end of 2004,
about 11 years after, Nigeria owed the Paris Club $31 billion out of $36
billion of its foreign debt. The rise in the debt stock was as a result
of interest rates, interest arrears and interest charged on the
arrears.
These are huge arrears, penalties and interests
accumulated over the years. In December 2000, rescheduling agreements
made by the Federal Government showed the principal balance of the
nation’s debt was $1.48 billion. But the principal arrears were $10.31
billion; interest arrears $4.45 billion and late interest $5.18 billion.
As
a result, over $6 billion increase was recorded on Nigeria’s debt
profile between 2002-2004. This added up to $31.42 billion that Nigeria
was said to be owing the Paris Club as at 2002. To exit the Paris Club,
Nigeria made the total payment of $12.4 billion to Paris Club and
Britain, the largest creditor received $3 billion.
Years after,
Dr. Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala who assisted Nigeria to exit the club of
creditors is again presiding over the accumulation of another round of
debt that could snowball into a debt trap. In an attempt to comfort
Nigerians that all is well, the Director-General, Debt Management
Office, Dr. Abraham Nwankwo assured that the debt remained sustainable
at a ratio of 12.51 to the Gross Domestic Product, GDP. But he
contradicted himself immediately by saying that the managers of the
nation’s debt would apply more caution in further borrowing in order not
to run into the crisis of debt overhang, which the nation once
suffered.
Nwankwo is just being a clever civil servant. All is not
well. The debt is mounting and the nation’s revenue profile is
dwindling. Oil production is dropping, traditional buyers of Nigeria’s
oil are finding alternatives. If the prices of crude crash as it did in
the 80s that led to the nation’s inability to pay its debt as at when
due, the country will once again be in a strait. For several years,
Nigeria has been preaching economic diversification without any
appreciable progress. The nation has continued to import goods it has no
business importing.
Nothing has changed, just the faces of the
economic managers whose major concern is gathering in Abuja at the end
of every month to share oil money.
DMO-DG said: “The sovereign
debt is doing well. Currently, our total sovereign domestic debt for
federal, states and the FCT is about N8.9 trillion and external debt is
about $9.38 billion. The question to ask Dr. Nwankwo is: how well is the
debt doing? A debt is a debt. These men should stop deceiving
Nigerians. You are accumulating debt for the next generation of
Nigerians. The last debt overhang is what has caused the level of
unemployment in the country today.
The present insecurity ravaging
the unity of the country was as a result of the indiscretion of those
who led the nation to wanton borrowing in the 70s. Today, while those
men and their children are living in luxury, the younger generation is
wallowing in abject poverty.
The government would want Nigerians
to swallow the bait that the nation’s current debt/G.P. ratio is about
12.51 per cent which is much lower than the 56 per cent total public to
G.P for countries in Nigeria’s group saying that this is not an
indication that Nigeria can afford to borrow without caution.
In
spite of the rebasing which means we have more capacity to borrow, we
are not going to borrow without caution. In fact, we are going to be
more cautious, especially because our tax-G.P ratio is low. Many
economic agents do not pay their taxes.” This is where this government
has failed. If many economic agents are not paying their taxes and oil
revenue is dwindling, what has it done to fill the gap? This is
dangerous for the future.
The frightening thing is that the
Federal Government raised additional $1 billion from the international
capital market in 2013 following which several Nigerian firms,
especially banks have also gone to the international capital market to
raise funds for their operations. Six companies issued nine bonds within
the last one year, from which about $3.4 billion was raised. This
development does not look promising considering Nigeria’s previous
experience with borrowing from the international capital market.